Casino Industry Performance driven by Real Estate and Consumer Confidence in China, Analysts say

“The biggest positive factor for Macau would be if the Chinese economy grows and consumer confidence levels improve,” said Vitaly Umansky, an analyst at consultancy firm Seaport Research Partners.

More than 70 per cent of those who visited the SAR in 2024 came from mainland China, whose economic growth reached Beijing’s target of 5 per cent last year. However, Nicholas Chen, an analyst at CreditSights, said that the firm, which is part of the Fitch Ratings group, expects a slowdown to 4.7 per cent this year, partly due to weak private consumption.

China’s consumer confidence index fell in September to its lowest level in 34 years, noted Jeffrey Kiang, an analyst at consultancy firm CLSA.

In other words, “if the outlook for Chinese consumers is not good, they may tighten their belts, cut back on travel and spending,” including in Macau, explained Nicholas Chen.

The Central Government has launched a series of stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts, reductions in banks’ reserve requirements, and the early allocation of billions from its 2025 budget to finance construction projects.

Beijing has also expanded a consumer goods exchange system and raised the salaries of millions of civil servants to boost domestic demand.

“The [Chinese] government has already said it will introduce more measures to stimulate the economy,” said Vitaly Umansky, who expects a recovery in middle-class confidence in particular: “I think it will happen; it’s just a matter of time.”

CreditSights expects Chinese consumer confidence to rise again in the second half of 2025, alongside the stabilisation of real estate prices, which have been falling for 19 consecutive months.

This issue is of great concern to Beijing due to its implications for social stability, as housing is one of the main investment vehicles for families, and the real estate sector—when indirect factors are considered—accounts for around 30 per cent of China’s economy.

“There will certainly be some spillover effect, as part of the measures adopted to boost domestic consumption could flow into Macau’s gaming sector,” said Nicholas Chen.

The analyst believes that China will further expand the list of cities whose residents can apply for ‘individual visas’ to visit Hong Kong and Macau, a method used by 35.2 per cent of the tourists who visited Macau in 2024.

Vitaly Umansky does not share this view, pointing out that since 1 January, residents of the neighbouring city of Zhuhai have been allowed to visit Macau once a week and stay for up to seven days.

Nevertheless, analysts agree that casino revenues will remain far from the all-time high of MOP 303 billion (EUR 36 billion) recorded in 2018.

“One thing is clear: the government aims for moderate revenue growth in the future,” said Jeffrey Kiang, recalling that authorities forecast gaming revenues of MOP 240 billion (USD 30 billion) in 2025, representing a 5.8 per cent increase.

“When the Macau government releases a forecast, it is usually very conservative and based on prior discussions with the Liaison Office” of the Chinese central government in the city, said Vitaly Umansky.

The analyst does not believe Beijing has any measures up its sleeve to control the casino industry’s recovery, similar to the crackdown that began with the arrest of the head of the world’s largest VIP junket operator in November 2021.

The former CEO of Suncity, Alvin Chau Cheok Wa, was sentenced in January 2023 to 18 years in prison for illegal gambling operations and involvement in a secret society, a case that saw the number of gaming promoter licences—known as ‘junkets’—plummet from 85 to 18.

“A large part of the undesirable behaviour in Macau disappeared with the junkets. As long as things like that don’t happen again, I don’t expect any major crackdowns in the short term,” said Umansky.