Macau Casino GGR Forecast to Outpace Consensus in 2026

CBRE Equity Research is forecasting Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) to grow 8.3 percent year-on-year in 2026, which it says is 2.0 percentage points above current consensus. That would be up from 2025’s GGR of MOP247.40 billion (US$30.65 billion), according to Macau government data.

The institution’s analysts say above-consensus performance is likely due to factors including China targeting “4.5 percent to 5.0 percent growth in gross domestic product (GDP)”.

CBRE analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh wrote in a Monday note: “Macau GGR should top full-year 2026 consensus” of 6.0 percent growth.

Government data showed GGR for the three months to March 31 at MOP65.87 billion, up 14.3 percent year-on-year.

The CBRE team said that for full-year GGR growth to be only at consensus level, “after the first quarter, GGR [growth] would need to decelerate to 3.5 percent for the remainder of the year… We believe [such] deceleration is unlikely.”

The analysts said they “expect Macau GGR to grow faster” than underlying Chinese mainland GDP “as the Chinese consumer continues to benefit from targeted stimulus”.

The research house suggested that should also support growth in earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) – a matter of concern for some analysts recently.

CBRE stated: “We believe the magnitude of topline growth in first quarter 2026 was enough to support continued EBITDA growth for most operators, even those that might have given up some GGR share in exchange for profitability.”

The analysts also suggested that among Macau’s six operators, operating expenditure (opex) and “competitive pressures” were “stabilising”.

Operational expenditure and promotional activity had “stepped up” in the fourth quarter of 2025, “sparking concern,” they noted.

The CBRE team stated: “Market wide commission dollars increased 21 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter to 19.2 percent of GGR while non-tax operating expenditure rose 8.6 percent.”

The analysts added, referring to Las Vegas Sands Corp, parent of Macau operator Sands China Ltd: “The elevated promotional activity is being driven by a select few operators, including Las Vegas Sands, which has been transparent in its efforts to regain market share.

“We expect promotional activity to remain elevated but stabilise in full-year 2026, while opex growth should also normalise as many concession-related opex investments are now baked into the cost structure.”

CBRE further noted: “The ongoing investment in entertainment in Macau should attract additional visitation, particularly from the base mass segment that has yet to fully recover.”