Analysts bullish on Las Vegas-driven earnings

Visitation numbers from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority show a daily average of 43,821 vehicles crossing the Nevada-California state line on I-15 in March. That’s down 5% from 45,872 in March 2021.

“We believe rising gas prices had somewhat of an impact on drive traffic, given results were not higher year-over-year for the first time since Jan. 2021,” said Wall Street analyst Barry Jonas with Truist Securities.

Jonas isn’t sounding an alarm. But it’s a trend to watch in the coming months as rising gas prices show no sign of slowing, with the war in Ukraine waging on and OPEC countries reluctant to increase production to deal with the supply shortage.


It’s hard to be negative when Las Vegas reported 3.3 million visitors in March, the second highest total since Las Vegas casinos reopened in June 2020. The 494,200 in convention visitors in March was down only 10.5% from the 552,200 in March 2019 prior to the pandemic. The 4.2 million passengers going through Harry Reid International Airport in March were only 3% below the 4.4 million in March 2019. The 154,104 international passengers were the most since international travel restrictions were eased in November.

Going forward, air travel looks good. Jonas said air-seat-capacity growth looks strong, with April seats expected to grow 40% year-over-year, followed by May up at 29%, June at 26%, and July at 24%.

Jonas said that the Strip’s March gaming win up 49% year-over-year, locals casinos up 8%, and downtown up 22%, while Strip revenue per available room was up 147% over March 2021, the recovery continues and there is “no visible effect from rising gas prices and inflation.”

David Katz, an analyst with Jefferies Equities Research, said the data points over the past couple of weeks suggest “Las Vegas Strip trends accelerated through the quarter, with particular strength in March.” He said Jefferies has taken the unusual step to revise estimates ahead of MGM Resorts International releasing its earnings report on Monday. Caesars and Red Rock Resorts release earnings on Tuesday.

“Moreover, within our review, we conclude that the consensus is likely somewhat low as well,” Katz said. “With the Strip accelerating, capital position improving, digital execution remaining on track, MGM remains compelling, reiterating buy.”

Katz said that Las Vegas Sands reported a strong performance at the Venetian and Palazzo; a 53-day period ending February 22 recorded 84.6% occupancy. “Based on these anecdotal results, we are expecting MGM to report first quarter results ahead of our prior estimates,” Katz said.

Katz took aim at the LVCVA reporting strong convention business, which has been slow to return since the pandemic.

“Pending management commentary, we are bullish on the convention and entertainment calendar for the rest of the year and 2023,” Katz said.

“The outlook for the Las Vegas Strip should be strong for the rest of the year, though we expect some questions around demand and margin sustainability in general. As the company just closed the MGP divestiture, we expect discussions to focus on capital allocation strategy and potential greenfield opportunity, such as New York. Lastly, digital development should remain a key topic, with a recent launch in Ontario and overall path to profitability critical.”

Empire City and Borgata have reported better than expected gross gaming revenue, while MGM China has been hurt by omicron, Katz said.

“All in, we are raising our first quarter estimates to $2.79 billion for revenue and $688.3 million for adjusted EBITDAR, from $2.55 billion and $578.5 million prior,” Katz said. “For fiscal year 2022, we now expect the company to generate $12.49 billion of revenue and $3.27 billion of adjusted EBITDAR. Our fiscal year 2023 estimates are relatively unchanged at this time, and our price target remains $56.”

Jonas said the Truist Securities room rate survey for Las Vegas continues to track upward for 28 casinos across the Strip. It tracks leisure rates 13 weeks going forward.

The initial second-quarter rates are tracking up 76% overall with weekend strong at 67% and weekdays improving to 87%. First-quarter rates ended up 82% higher with weekends at 87% higher and weekdays at 77% higher, Jonas said.

By Buck Wargo