JP Morgan: Macau GGR Maintains Solid Momentum in Late January

In a report released on Monday, JP Morgan stated that Macau’s casinos generated an average of MOP712 million per day in GGR during the period under review, based on the bank’s proprietary channel checks. Analysts described the month-to-date results as “steady and solid,” even amid fluctuations in certain gaming segments.

According to the investment bank, the most recent weekly run-rate stood at approximately MOP693 million per day, broadly in line with the previous week. This consistency was achieved despite a lower VIP win rate, a factor that typically weighs on headline revenue figures. By comparison, December’s average daily GGR was estimated at MOP624 million, highlighting a notable sequential improvement.

Growth Outlook Remains Firm for Early 2026

JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian indicated that the current trend supports a robust year-on-year expansion for January. The institution continues to model GGR growth of between 15% and 20% for the month, with results likely skewed toward the upper end of that range.

If this trajectory holds, the bank expects Macau’s gaming revenue to rise by around 13% across the first two months of 2026 and throughout the first quarter of the year, reinforcing confidence in the market’s post-recovery stability.

EBITDA Forecast Adjusted, but Upside Maintained

Earlier in January, JP Morgan revised its forecast for full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA for Macau’s six concessionaires, lowering the estimate to MOP71.9 billion. Despite the downward adjustment, the new projection still represents a 5% increase compared to the bank’s MOP68.5 billion EBITDA forecast for 2025, a year for which operators have yet to release final financial results.

Overall, the analysis suggests that while expectations have been fine-tuned, Macau’s gaming sector continues to demonstrate steady fundamentals, supported by consistent mass-market demand and improving revenue run-rates as 2026 gets underway.