Observers Say Baccarat Side Bets Could Lift Macau Casino Results, Depending on Client Mix and Market Strategy

Ryan Ho Hong Wai, a gaming scholar at Macao Polytechnic University, told GGRAsia: “Structurally, side bets carry a higher house edge than the main base options, typically in the mid-teens. As a result, even modest adoption among players would statistically raise overall hold rates.”

“This is consistent with the broad but moderate industry-wide uplift visible [for Macau casinos’ hold rates] after the introduction [of baccarat side bets], most clearly at properties with high foot traffic,” added Mr Ho.

Clayton Peister, managing director of casino analytics specialist, Differential Labs, told GGRAsia: “We recently analysed 200 U.S. casinos’ monthly results and found that – on average – a 10-percent increase” in the percentage of house advantage “translates into a 3-percent increase in win.”

A similar positive impact can be observed in Macau, suggested Mr Peister.

Macau’s casino play is dominated by live-dealer baccarat in the mass and VIP segments, with side bets adopted in both since 2024, per GGRAsia’s periodic site checks.

With the support of ‘smart’ table technology, Macau’s baccarat side bet options have seen significant updates from 2024, when the ‘Small 6/Big 6’ baccarat side bet as well as ‘Lucky 7’ and ‘Super Lucky 7’ were introduced to the market.

From mid-July 2025, Macau casino operator Sands China Ltd had been operating a baccarat progressive jackpot, though the offer was terminated with effect from March 16 this year. Other Macau gaming operators had – with effect from the second half last year – opted to simplify their baccarat side bet options across mass-floor and high-limit main-floor games.

A number of Macau casinos saw year-on-year improvement in non-rolling chip win percentage during 2024 and 2025, sometimes extending across consecutive quarters. Benefits were seen at a number of casinos including The Londoner Macao, MGM Macau, Studio City, and Galaxy Macau, as well as Grand Lisboa Palace. That is according to data collated by GGRAsia (see graph above) from the financial results of the respective firms that operate the venues.

In terms of rolling chip win percentage (see graph above), the casinos at MGM Cotai, City of Dreams Macau and Galaxy Macau saw year-on-year improvement throughout 2025.

The rolling chip win percentage at The Venetian Macao and The Londoner Macao – while not registering any consistent year-on-year rise throughout 2024 and 2025 – did exceed their operator’s expected hold of 3.3 percent across most of the quarters in the period.

“Rolling win percent is essentially a representation of the house advantage and so increases in house advantage should flow through,” stated Differential Labs’ Mr Peister.   

Casino operators’ non-rolling win, on the other hand, is driven by several defining factors outside house advantage, Mr Peister noted.

The newbie effect

“New properties almost [always] have low non-rolling win rate… As a property becomes more fun, players stay for longer which means they increase ‘hands played’,” said the analytics expert.

He outlined that ‘hands played’ represents duration of play session times game speed, with that affecting gaming turnover and win percentage.

He also noted: “The other defining factor driving non-rolling win rate is the concept of wallet versus time constrained. If a player is time constrained, then the property can either increase game speed or house advantage via high-edge side bets.”

Mr Peister added: “The properties which have seen nominal benefits from side bets are more likely to be those with wallet-constrained patrons. Side bets, in effect, mean players lose faster.”

Gaming scholar Mr Ho noted to GGRAsia: “Intra-[property] portfolio shifts may also matter.”

He stated: “Operators running multiple properties may see one property gaining at the other’s expense, as marketing resources, loyalty programmes, and key clientele are redirected towards a preferred property, potentially leaving the other with a lower-value customer pool.”

That can affect the win percentages for rolling and non-rolling play, Mr Ho added.

Client mix, market positioning of venues 

The gaming academic further noted that while “side bets were available to all operators, and all properties were expected to benefit somewhat equally,” the divergence of benefits shown in actual market conditions “suggests that property-specific factors also matter.”

These included “seasonal fluctuations in customer mix, adoption rates driven by floor and dealer promotions, and [casinos’] competitive positioning,” Mr Ho remarked.

For casino operators, maintaining their market share amid the city’s increasingly competitive environment “does not guarantee” a “stable hold rate”, Mr Ho also suggested.

The gaming scholar explained, referring to the fluctuations seen across Macau casinos’ non-rolling and rolling hold: “Gaming is inherently different from other industries in that luck plays a key part in results, which are statistically ‘noisy’ from quarter to quarter.”

“Statistical volatility can obscure underlying trends and produce seemingly inconsistent patterns even when no fundamental change has occurred.”

Mr Ho further noted to GGRAsia: “Properties that already operate at high hold rates may face mathematical ceiling effects and [arithmetic] mean reversion.”

In such circumstances, “marginal uplift from side bets or other enhancements like smart tables [functionality] becomes increasingly difficult to achieve as results revert towards a longer-run average.

“High hold rates may also reflect an already-favourable customer mix,” Mr Ho remarked.