Prediction market in Mexico: the new frontier between betting and finance

What is a prediction market?

A prediction market allows users to buy and sell contracts whose value depends on whether or not a future event occurs. Unlike a traditional sportsbook, where the operator sets the odds, in these markets the price arises from supply and demand among the participants. Although their operators present them as financial instruments or mechanisms to aggregate collective information, for the user there is money at risk, a future and uncertain outcome and a profit or loss determined by that outcome.

The World Cup boosted the model

The phenomenon took on a special dimension during the 2026 World Cup that demonstrated the potential of these markets as competitors to traditional sports betting. Before the tournament, trades on the World Cup winner had reached about $2 billion, while during the competition Kalshi recorded about $27 billion in volume, according to data cited by Reuters. In Mexico, interest was also reflected in Polymarket's alliance with Liga MX, reinforcing the link between these platforms and the Mexican soccer market.

The leaders of the Mexican prediction market

In Mexico, the prediction market is beginning to gain visibility with platforms such as Contora Market, considered one of the leading proposals in the segment in the country, which offers forecasts on politics, sports, economics and entertainment, with real-time updated probabilities. In addition to this offer, the aforementioned Polymarket is recognized, recognized for the breadth of its markets and for including events of relevance to Mexican users. The growth of these platforms shows the expansion of a model that combines event analysis, negotiation and prediction, and that at the same time opens a debate on their classification and treatment within the Mexican regulatory framework.

The legal view: "it is, in essence, a gamble"

In Mexico there is no specific category of "prediction markets" within the legislation of games and sweepstakes. The Federal Law on Games and Sweepstakes establishes the framework for betting activities and places their authorization, control and surveillance under the orbit of the Ministry of the Interior.

In this context, Gerardo Ballesteros Félix Díaz, a lawyer specializing in Games and Sweepstakes and senior partner at LC Gaming, argues that the predictive market is, in essence, a bet. According to his exclusive analysis for SoloAzar, there is an initial outlay, a future and uncertain event and a gain or loss determined by the success of the prediction. For the specialist, "the name or technological architecture of the product does not modify its legal substance" and presenting these operations exclusively as financial instruments or tools of "collective wisdom" constitutes a conceptual error. From his perspective, by their nature and substance, they should fall under the laws of games and lotteries.

In this sense, Ballesteros is categorical: "Predictive markets risk money on uncertainty; by definition, they are bets, and as such, they must be regulated in a strict, fair and transparent manner."

The challenge for Mexico

The debate is to determine whether these products should be treated as bets, financial instruments or a new regulatory category. The discussion also involves licensing, consumer protection, anti-money laundering, age limits, advertising, sports integrity and taxation. For the industry, prediction markets represent both a competitive threat and an opportunity to develop new products. While a traditional sportsbook sets its odds and generally acts as a counterparty to the bet, in a prediction market users can negotiate contracts with each other and the price is modified according to supply and demand. This difference is one of the main arguments used by platforms to defend their financial nature, although from the consumer's perspective the operation can be very similar to that of a bet.

Mexico facing a new frontier of gambling

In conclusion, the growth of prediction markets raises a question that transcends the World Cup and forces us to review the boundaries between gambling, finance and technology. The challenge for Mexico will be to determine which regime should be applied to platforms that allow you to risk money on future events, especially when their products have a structure similar to that of financial instruments. Meanwhile, the market continues to expand and the definition of its legal nature will be key to establishing the rules of operation, supervision and protection of users.

In this context, SiGMA North America 2026 will bring together the main leaders of the industry in Mexico City. SoloAzar will closely cover the event with interviews, analysis and news for its readers. Those who plan to attend can still get a 30% discount on their registration by using the code Soloazar30SIGMA, an exclusive benefit for the SoloAzar community.