Citi urges investors to treat June as Macau’s 2024 “floor month”

Coming off the best month for GGR since early 2020 in May, Macau’s gaming revenues have been impacted over the past week by heavy rain and the start of China’s nationwide university admission exams, which City analysts George Choi and Ryan Cheung say is a major reason why June is usually slow.

“June is typically the slowest month of the calendar year for Macau, so we are not surprised that Macau looked quieter than usual when we conducted our June 2024 survey last Friday,” they wrote in a Monday note.

Despite this, they also described observed volumes as “respectable” with total premium mass wager in premium mass rooms visited up 10% year-on-year, driven by a 31% higher player count. Total wager observed in the June 2024 survey amounted to HK$10 million (US$1.28 million) with total player count of 543.

While wager per player was actually 16% lower year-on-year at HK$18,478 (US$2,365), the analysts attribute the fall in premium mass player quality to the high base in June 2023.

“Recall that June 2023 was when Sands China hosted the renowned Cantopop singer Jacky Cheung for 12 shows,” they said. “Sands China was successful in luring a lot of whales to visit Macau this time last year and this created a high base for our premium mass survey this month, considering there was no major concept concert with similar caliber happening this weekend.

“Having said that, we find the 31% higher year on year player count and the 10% year on year higher total wager encouraging given our survey day coincided with the first day of China’s nationwide university admission exams.”

Citi said it saw 16 whales – defined as those betting HK$100,000 (US$12,800 million) a hand or more – including one player betting HK$1 million (US$128,000) on a hand.