Citigroup revises down 2025 GRR forecast for Macau after slow start

In a weekend note, Citigroup suggested that lower-than-anticipated GGR of MOP$589 million (US$73.4 million) per day in January and disappointing Chinese New Year print were due to some late Macau trip cancelations by players, which coincided with the implementation by the United States of tariffs on China from 1 February.

“These two data points turn us more cautious on near-term GGR trends,” said Citigroup’s George Choi and Timothy Chau.

“At the current run-rate, Jan-Feb combined GGR could become the [next] negative GGR data point. We believe the implementation of US tariffs against China on 1 February has dampened gaming demand towards the end of the CNY Golden Week, and we expect this impact to continue throughout most of 1H25. Coupled with the relatively high base in 1H, 1H25 Macau GGR is expected to fall 1% year-on-year.”

Citigroup does, however, expect improved market performance during the second half of the year as player sentiment starts to recover and major events return to Macau, including the Jacky Cheung concern series at Galaxy Arena in June, the summer holidays and the October Golden Week.

“Our slightly reduced 2H25 GGR forecast of MOP$119.5 billion (US$14.9 billion) implies a daily run-rate of MOP$650 million (US$81.0 million) and +6% year-on-year growth. Note that Macau will have a relatively low base in 2H,” Citigroup said, reflecting on some previous player trip cancellations in 2H24 and the December visit of China’s President Xi Jinping, which was seen as a deterrent to player visitation.