Illegal Betting Market Declines in Brazil in H1

Regulation Reduces Share of Illegal Bets

The study “Sizing and Combating the Illegal Betting Market in Brazil”, conducted by LCA Consultores, shows that the estimated share of the illegal market decreased in the first half of 2026 compared with the survey released in June 2025.

In addition to the reduction in the estimated percentage, the study identified a decrease in the gap between the most optimistic and most pessimistic scenarios. The margin fell from 10 percentage points in the previous survey to six percentage points in the first half of 2026.

The analysis was based on data from the survey “Incidence of Illegal Betting in Brazil”, conducted by Instituto Locomotiva at the request of the Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR).

According to the researchers, the reduction observed during the semester is related to the advancement of regulation and enforcement actions in the sector. These measures would also be helping bettors identify licensed platforms more clearly and distinguish them from unlicensed operators.

Despite the improvement recorded in the first half of the year, Brazil’s illegal market continues to account for a significant share of the sector compared with other regulated markets.

“The good news is that we are managing to reduce the illegal market, but the study does not discuss whether betting is good or bad. The fact is that the illegal market is still very large compared with other countries,” said Eric Brasil, Director of Regulation and Public Policies at LCA Consultores.

Brazil Still Shows High Level of Illegal Activity

According to the study, the Netherlands is the only market analyzed with a higher share of illegal betting than the estimated figure for Brazil, at 51%.

At the other end of the spectrum, Ireland, Sweden and the United Kingdom have the lowest percentages of illegal betting, at 3%, 6% and 8%, respectively.

The data reinforce that, although the first half of 2026 showed progress in the share of Brazil’s regulated market, the country still has a level of illegal activity significantly higher than that observed in major international markets.

Eric Brasil also highlighted that the regulated betting sector generated approximately R$37 billion in revenue last year.

IBJR Highlights Effects of Regulation

Carlos Lima, Chief Executive Officer of IBJR, said that the figures presented by LCA Consultores indicate that regulation and measures adopted by the federal government against illegal platforms are beginning to produce tangible results.

“The reduction observed is a positive sign of the consolidation of Brazil’s regulated market,” he said.

According to the executive, the progress recorded in the first half of the year should be accompanied by the continuation of actions against unlicensed operators and the strengthening of a stable regulatory environment for authorized companies.

Lima also highlighted the importance of ensuring legal certainty and predictability for the regulated market. According to him, new measures applied exclusively to licensed operators could create competitive asymmetries that may indirectly benefit illegal platforms.

“The challenge now is to continue this progress, strengthening the fight against unlicensed operators and ensuring that regulatory developments take place with legal certainty and predictability,” he said.

In the assessment of IBJR’s CEO, it is necessary to prevent new obligations or measures targeting only licensed companies from making the illegal market more attractive to consumers and ultimately directing bettors toward unlicensed platforms.

Regulated Market Generates Billions

Online betting regulation has been in force in Brazil since January 2025. Since then, the federal government has expanded control, enforcement and tax collection mechanisms related to the fixed-odds betting market.

Data from the Ministry of Finance show that, last year, betting operators contributed R$9.95 billion in taxes collected. In addition to taxation, each authorized platform paid R$30 million in licensing fees to public coffers.

According to the study “Overview of the Fixed-Odds Betting Market”, regulated operators also invested R$7.5 billion in share capital.

The activity also generated an estimated 15,500 direct and indirect jobs, increasing the sector’s economic impact since the implementation of the regulated market.

The results presented in the first half of 2026 therefore indicate a reduction in the estimated share of illegal betting, while also highlighting that the black market remains one of the main challenges for the consolidation of Brazil’s regulated betting industry.