Macau Casino Revenue: Projected Earnings Drop and Market Insights

Third-Quarter Earnings Pressures and CLSA Forecasts

CLSA projects sector-wide EBITDA to drop by 11% year over year to US$1.84 billion (MOP14.87 billion) for the quarter ending in September. This contraction is fueled by a 3.8% decline in quarterly gross gaming revenue (GGR) down to MOP60.2 billion. Commission and rebate expenses paid out by operators are anticipated to climb to US$1.54 billion (MOP12.44 billion), representing 20.7% of gaming revenue compared to 18.6% previously, compounding margin compression. 

Although above-normal VIP win rates between 3% and 4.1% provided a temporary cushion, brokerages view this strength as cyclical rather than structural. Furthermore, surging operational overhead continues to restrict profitability, with Sands China expecting a 12% annual jump in property-level expenses due to revised player reinvestment strategies.

October Performance and UBS Revenue Insights

Market activity across Macau showed recovery signs in October following September's sluggish performance, which marked the weakest month of 2026 with MOP18.06 billion in GGR. UBS reported that average daily gaming revenue peaked near MOP1 billion during the first four days of the National Day Golden Week holiday before stabilizing at MOP729 million between October 5 and October 11. 

While mass daily run-rates climbed 35% to 38% month over month and VIP volumes rose 40% to 45%, sell-side expectations calling for flat year-over-year daily revenue of MOP777 million remain a steep hurdle. Meeting full-month projections requires maintaining an average of roughly MOP744 million over the remaining days of October, a target UBS labels as challenging given ongoing market constraints and limited room for upcoming margin expansion.