Macau GGR Forecast: CLSA Expects Decline Amid Rising Comparison Base

Macau GGR Beats May Forecasts but Growth Set to Slow

Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) outperformed market expectations in May, but year-on-year growth is expected to moderate from June as the comparison base rises, according to an investment memo by CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang.

Macau’s May 2026 gross gaming revenue rose 6.7 percent year-on-year to MOP22.61 billion ($2.8 billion), broadly in line with CLSA’s forecast of 6.6 percent growth and 1.7 percent above Bloomberg consensus.

CLSA said the result represented a ‘solid finish,’ with gaming revenue averaging MOP783 million ($96.9 million) per day from May 26th to May 31st. That was 9 percent higher than the MOP716 million ($88.6 million) daily average recorded during the first 25 days of the month, which the brokerage said was possibly due to ‘normalized win rates.’

After adjusting for the number of days in the month, May’s average daily GGR stood at MOP729 million ($90.2 million), 10 percent above the MOP663 million ($82.1 million) recorded in April 2026.

For the first 5 months of 2026, Macau’s GGR increased 10.9 percent year-on-year to MOP108.4 billion ($13.42 billion), reaching 86 percent of the level recorded in the same period of 2019.

CLSA Forecasts Macau June GGR to Dip Slightly Amid Rising Comparison Base

CLSA expects Macau’s June GGR to edge down 0.65 percent year-on-year to MOP20.9 billion ($2.59 billion), implying average daily revenue of MOP698 million ($86.4 million). Kiang noted that the forecast is broadly in line with the Bloomberg consensus median, which stands at a 1 percent year-on-year decline.

The brokerage said growth is expected to moderate from June onward as the year-on-year base rises. It maintained its 2026 full-year forecast for Macau GGR growth at 5 percent, at the low end of the market consensus range of 5 percent to 8 percent.