Prediction Markets Disrupt Legal NFL Betting Growth in 2026

Legal NFL bets for 2026 mark zero year-over-year growth

Americans are estimated to legally wager $29.5 billion on the 2026 NFL season through U.S. regulated commercial sportsbooks, according to the American Gaming Association (AGA). The projection indicates no growth in the legal, state-regulated betting handle compared to last season’s $29.4 billion handle.

Millions of Americans are continuing to choose legal, state-regulated sportsbooks to amplify the excitement of the games. At the same time, “prediction markets” are rapidly expanding backdoor sports betting offerings across all 50 states and Washington, DC.

“We’re excited for the NFL season to kickoff, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favorite teams. Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalized sports betting had seen tremendous growth,” said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller. “But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called “prediction markets,” the growth of legal handle has stalled.”

Unregulated Prediction Markets Siphon Over $1.3 B in Potential Tax Revenue, AGA Warns

These platforms are operating outside the regulatory frameworks governing sports betting in the 40 jurisdictions where it is legal, while also bypassing the laws prohibiting sports betting in the 11 states that have chosen not to legalize it.

Since the start of last year’s football season, legal commercial sports betting handle growth has slowed significantly. This comes as the legal market continues to mature, and as prediction markets expand their sports offerings nationwide. Sports bets make up about 80% of Kalshi’s volume, which includes an estimated $5.1 billion in volume from users between the ages 18-20, which is below the legal age in 35-of-40 jurisdictions where sports betting is legal.

The legal, regulated gaming industry supports 1.8 million jobs and generates roughly $18 billion a year in sports betting tax revenue for important community projects such as education, infrastructure, and public services. By contrast, “prediction markets” like Kalshi and Polymarket are estimated to have siphoned more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue since 2025.

As millions of Americans prepare for the NFL season, the AGA encourages fans to understand the difference between licensed sportsbooks, “prediction markets,” and other illegal operators and to wager only with legal, state- and tribal-regulated operators.

“Prediction market” platforms are misleading consumers, AGA said

“These “prediction market” platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment,” Miller added. “Kalshi and other “prediction markets” say they don’t need to follow state- and tribal- regulated sports betting laws or pay state gaming taxes. Their defiance means consumers, including teenagers and freshmen, placing bets without the protections, oversight, and accountability that the legal market provides.”