Citi's Disappointing Forecast: Macau's Casino Revenue Takes a Hit

Macau’s casino revenue outlook for September has weakened after Citi cut its monthly gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast by 10 per cent to MOP18 billion (US$2.24 billion), following what the bank described as one of its weakest table surveys in recent years.

The revised estimate, down from MOP20 billion, would represent a 14 per cent decline from September 2025 and leave third-quarter GGR about 4 per cent lower year-on-year, analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau said in a research note.

Citi’s survey, based on observations made on 18 September, found that casino floors were generally quieter than during its visit three months earlier, when the football World Cup had recently begun.

Observed premium-mass wagers fell 45 per cent year-on-year to HK$6.8 million (US$871,000), from HK$12.3 million. The number of premium-mass players declined by 20 per cent to 401, while the average wager per player dropped by 31 per cent to HK$16,958.

The analysts described the results as ‘among the worst in recent history’, but cautioned against reading the one-night survey as definitive evidence that customers had become less willing to spend.

The visit took place one week before the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday and two weeks before the October Golden Week, raising the possibility that some customers had deferred their trips.

Galaxy and MGM gain survey share

The findings also pointed to a shift in the competitive positions of Macau’s concessionaires within the premium-mass segment.

Galaxy Entertainment Group ranked first in Citi’s survey, accounting for 26 per cent of observed wagers, up from 20 per cent a year earlier. MGM China placed second with a 24 per cent share, compared with 9 per cent in September 2025.

Citi counted 14 high-value players during the latest visit, compared with 17 in August and 13 a year earlier. Five were observed at MGM China’s two properties, the highest number among the six operators, while Galaxy Macau and StarWorld accounted for three.

The bank also noted several operational and capital-project developments across the market. It said Crystal Palace phase two at Casino Lisboa had recently opened with about 30 baccarat tables and several tables offering traditional games, including Sic Bo and Pai Gow.

At Wynn Palace, the shuttle-bus stop at the east entrance had been moved to vacant land near the south lobby, with construction work on the Enclave project appearing to have begun, according to the analysts.

October events provide next demand test

The October entertainment calendar may provide a clearer test of demand during the Golden Week period. Galaxy Arena is scheduled to host concerts by Rene Liu, Jane Zhang and Richie Jen, while the Venetian and Londoner arenas will stage a Sara Landry performance and the NBA China Games. MGM is due to host a Jonathan Lee concert.

Citi noted that a similarly weak September survey in 2024 was followed by stronger revenue in October, after some customers postponed visits until Golden Week to attend an Andy Lau concert.

The comparison supports the bank’s caution that the latest survey may partly capture the timing of travel rather than a sustained pullback in premium spending. Nevertheless, Citi adopted the lower September forecast ahead of the holiday period.