Macao: The government revises the 2025 budget and amid a gambling revenue dip

According to multiple media reports, the Executive Council yesterday announced the downward revision of Macao’s projected gross gaming revenue (GGR) for 2025, from 240 billion patacas (US$28.8 billion) to 228 billion patacas (US$27.36 billion). This adjustment necessitates amendments to the government’s budget, which will now be submitted to the Legislative Assembly for review and approval.

Originally, the 2025 budget was based on an anticipated monthly average GGR of 20 billion patacas (US$2.4 billion), leading to an expected 84 billion patacas (US$10.08 billion) in direct gaming tax revenue (reckoned at 35 percent of GGR). The initial budget projected total revenues of 121.09 billion patacas (US$14.53 billion) against expenditures of 113.38 billion patacas (US$13.61 billion), resulting in a surplus of 7.7 billion patacas (US$924 million).

However, recent gambling performance has been below initial forecasts. The revised GGR estimate of 228 billion patacas (US$27.36 billion), averaging 19 billion patacas (US$2.28 billion) per month, now suggests that Macao is expecting only 79.8 billion patacas (US$9.58 billion) in direct gaming tax revenue. Furthermore, the government plans to increase expenditure to implement measures outlined in its 2025 Policy Address, including contributions to the University of Macau’s (UM) new campus in Hengqin. 

The revised budget now anticipates revenues of 116.53 billion patacas (US$13.98 billion) and expenditures of 116.24 billion patacas (US$13.95 billion), resulting in a reduced surplus of just 290 million patacas (US$34.8 million).

Data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (known by the Portuguese initials DICJ) shows that the total GGR for the first five months of this year was 97.707 billion patacas (US$11.72 billion), averaging 19.541 billion patacas (US$2.35 billion) per month, a slight 1.7 percent increase from the same period last year. The month of May recorded 21.193 billion patacas (US$2.54 billion), surpassing the 20 billion patacas (US$2.4 billion) threshold, while other months remained below it.

Additionally, it was disclosed that the new UM campus in Hengqin has a total budget of 8.4 billion patacas (US$1.01 billion), with construction scheduled until 2030. The amended 2025 budget includes a planned payment of 1.75 billion patacas (US$210 million) towards this project.

The government’s revised budget revenue is now 4.56 billion patacas (US$547.2 million) lower than initially expected, while its budgeted expenditure is now 2.86 billion patacas (US$343.2 million) higher than initially budgeted.